A new report was released today on a possible Bird Flu outbreak in Indonesia. To see the article click here. In this article it talks about a hospital that has admitted 17 patients, with the potential Bird Flu virus. While I cannot say whether the Bird Flu has made the jump to human-human transmission or not, I can say that business continuity and COOP planners should take notice. Pandemic planning has become a major part of many employer’s and the government’s continuity plans and the subject of a recent tabletop exercise I helped facilitate.
The instance in Indonesia supports the World Health Organization’s claim that a pandemic is coming. It is not a matter of “if”, but a matter of “when.” Unfortunately, the most likely strain of the next pandemic is the current “Bird Flu” strain H5N1, with a mortality rate near 80%. Because of this high mortality rate, governments worldwide are taking steps to prepare.
The exercise I helped to facilitate brought in 150 leaders from various federal and local government agencies for a one day pandemic planning exercise. During this exercise we broke up the participants into various groups and walked asked them about their current plans. The moderators, flown in from Washington D.C. and senior members of the Department of Homeland Security and FEMA, had “mock” videos created that simulated what “CNN” newscasts might look like. As the exercise continued over the course of the day, pandemic threat levels and transmission rates steadily rose.
The first outbreak started in Indonesia (coincidence?) and we discussed how the agencies would respond internally. It was discussed that first outbreak most likely would not be reported until weeks later, since many Indonesian and Asian governments are not fully cooperating or actively monitoring reports of the outbreak. The agencies at my table talked about how they would step up the “family preparedness” materials that were disseminated to their employees. They talked about increasing hand hygiene and trying to reassure employees.
The next phase, was a news reporter coming on “air” and talking about the spread of the flu from Indonesia to Japan, and what was happening in Japan. Still the agencies at my table talked about stepping up their employee’s personal preparedness and discussed limiting travel from their agency to Asian countries.
The third phase was rather interesting with a report claiming that a businessman, recently on a trip back from Japan, had passed through LA and then on to another city. The virus had now reached the US. The agencies at my table decided that this was the trigger they needed to enact their response plans. Sanitation efforts were stepped up and employees encouraged to wear personal protective equipment. Many agencies said that they did not currently have up to date Telecommuting Programs and that their fear was getting people to come to work, to work. Of course this is where we got into a rather deep conversation about what needed to be completed in order to prepare and discussed at great length the many facets of sustaining a workforce when a majority of them are working remotely.
The last 3 phases escalated the pandemic through all 5 phases of the pandemic. Employees were infected, many died, and the agencies were asked how they would respond to each of the different phases. This exercise forced many who had just been “writers” of their plan to test their plan against what experts predicted might happen.
What’s noteworthy here is that there is no “correct” response to any pandemic. What the participants walked away with was a better understanding of how to prepare and how their responses would be affected by other agencies’ responses. This last point, concerning inter-agency cooperation lies at the core of the entire exercise. The best way for the US to respond will take a coordinated response from Federal, State, and local governments combined with private businesses and families all working together to prevent the spread of a pandemic.